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STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS FOR VEHICULAR EMISSIONS ON URBAN ROADS- A CASE STUDY OF CHENNAI


Harikrishna, M. , Arun C. “Stochastic Analysis For Vehicular Emissions On Urban Roads- A Case Study Of Chennai” in Martin J. Bunch, V. Madha Suresh and T. Vasantha Kumaran, eds., Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Environment and Health, Chennai, India, 15-17 December, 2003. Chennai: Department of Geography, University of Madras and Faculty of Environmental Studies, York University. Pages 158 – 163.


Abstract:

The unbridled growth of the vehicular population has resulted in the deterioration of environmental quality in urban areas in developing countries. The concentration of obnoxious gases like carbon monoxide and suspended particulate matter continue to pose a major health hazard for the public. In this respect, the urban roads of Chennai, one of the metropolitan cities in India, were chosen for the study. The vehicular population was categorised as heavy-duty vehicles, 2 Stroke Two wheelers, 4 stroke two wheelers, autorickshaws, diesel cars and Post 1984 cars and Pre 1984 cars based on the classification criteria of the Tata Energy Research Institute. The Carbon Monoxide emissions from different modes of vehicles were collected and analysed for the adequacy of sample size using t- test. The sample size was found to be adequate for a confidence level of 90 %. The Probability density function was fitted to the data using Input Analyser developed by Rockwell Software Inc. The results indicate that the Carbon monoxide emission of various categories of vehicles follow Beta distribution function. The results obtained from the study can be used by decision-makers to predict the level of carbon monoxide emissions from the vehicular traffic on the urban roads of Chennai city. This can be used in the formulation of a simulation model to predict an accurate level of pollution in urban roads.

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