The Ontario Election -- York University Offers Experts From Every Angle

TORONTO, April 9, 1999 -- As the Ontario Legislature prepares for the opening of its spring sitting April 22, the province's political parties are readying themselves for an election call, widely expected in May for an early June election. York University has a host of experts able to comment from a diverse range of perspectives on many of the key issues to be examined once the writ is dropped -- from health care and nursing shortages, to the government's new school curriculum and school uniforms proposal, to homelessness, to provincial tax cuts, to the stuff of politics:

ELECTION CAMPAIGN EXPERTS

Fred Fletcher, director of York's Mass Communications Program and a professor of political science, is available to talk about polls, advertising and campaign media coverage. He can be reached at: (416) 736-2100, ext. 88819 or at home: (416) 932-8453.

Robert MacDermid, professor of political science, can talk about political parties, voting behaviour, polling, campaign strategies and election advertising. He can be reached at home: (705) 357-2459 or at work: (416) 736-2100, ext. 77298.

PLEASE NOTE: Fletcher and MacDermid will present a series of background releases following the events of the campaign. (The first background release, Liberal Pre-election Television Ads, is attached.)

James Laxer, a political science professor at York University's Atkinson College, is a leading expert on Ontario politics and can discuss everything from how the campaign is shaping up, to NDP election strategy, to tax cuts and the Ontario economy. He can be reached at: (416) 736-2100, ext. 66462 or at home: (416) 544-9941.

Daniel Drache is a political scientist and the director of York University's Robarts Centre for Canadian Studies. Drache, who will be following the election closely, is available to discuss the Conservative Party's prospects for re-election given what he argues has been a weak and ineffective opposition to the Harris government's unpopular policies. Drache, co-editor of Health Reform: Public Success, Private Failure, (just released this spring) can be reached at: (416) 736-5415, or at home: (416) 921-3332.

Robert Drummond is a political science professor with extensive knowledge of Ontario politics and provincial public policy, including provincial labour policy. He can be reached at his office at: (416) 736-2100, ext. 88843 or at home: (416) 494-3460.

Reg Whitaker, a York University political science professor who has written extensively on Canadian politics, including Quebec sovereignty and federalism issues, can be reached at: (416) 736-2100, ext. 88833 or at home: (416) 484-7366.

Ian Greene is a political science professor and Associate Dean of York University's Faculty of Arts. He has studied ethics legislation across Canada regarding conflicts of interest, undue influence, lobbying, party financing, and the attitudes of Canadians towards ethical issues in politics. Greene can be reached at: (416) 736-5260, ext. 33375, or at home: (416) 763-0766.

TAXATION / ECONOMIC/LEGAL EXPERTS

Neil Brooks, a professor of law at York University's Osgoode Hall Law School, can discuss the Harris government's tax cuts and fiscal policy. Brooks argues that the government shouldn't have cut taxes, but rather put the money toward health care and education. He can be reached at: (416) 736-5047 or at home: (905) 880-4735.

Patrick Monahan, a professor of law at York University's Osgoode Hall Law School, favours further tax cuts as an incentive to keep highly skilled professionals from leaving the province. Monahan can also discuss provincial economic policy and fiscal issues. He can be reached at: (416) 736-5568.

Joanne Magee is associate dean at York University's Atkinson College and a professor of taxation in Atkinson's Department of Administrative Studies. Magee, an expert on Canadian income tax law, served as a member of the Women and Tax Working Group of the Ontario Fair Tax Commission. She can be reached at: (416) 736-2100, ext. 33368 or at home: (416) 483-3959.

Bernie Wolf is an economics professor at York's Schulich School of Business. He can discuss the economic impact of the Harris tax cuts and whether further tax cuts are desirable for Ontario's economy. He can be reached at: (416) 736-2100, ext. 77933 or at home: (416) 223-2794.

HEALTH CARE / SOCIAL WELFARE EXPERTS

Esther Greenglass is a professor of psychology who is doing research on the Ontario Nurses Association (with Professor Burke below) and how nurses have taken the brunt of hospital closings and restructuring across Ontario. Women who have to travel to other jurisdictions for breast cancer treatment and pre-natal care are of particular concern to her. Greenglass has also studied the feminization of poverty and the homelessness situation. She can be reached at: (416) 736-5120, ext. 66282.

Ron Burke, an organizational behaviour and industry relations professor at York University's Schulich School of Business, has conducted several studies (with Prof. Esther Greenglass) on the effects of the Harris Government's restructuring of Ontario's hospital system. Burke can be reached at: (416) 736-2100, ext. 77921 or at home: (416) 486-8371.

Joan Gilmour is a professor of law at York University's Osgoode Hall Law School and Acting Director of the Centre for Health Studies. She can discuss how her research points towards a two-tier health care system under the current restructuring of hospitals. She can be reached at: (416) 736-5561 or (416) 736-5941.

Harvey Simmons, a professor of political science, can comment on the history of mental health policy in Ontario in light of recent cuts. Simmons can be reached at: (416) 736-2100, ext. 55265 or at home: (416) 482-9790.

Lorne Sossin, a professor of law and political science, has researched the role of social and economic rights in Canada's constitution and how this affects the Canada Health and Social Transfer. Sossin argues that the Harris government's cuts to social programs have left many people in need much more vulnerable. Sossin is available at: (416) 736-2100, ext. 88828.

EDUCATION EXPERTS

Jill Bell, acting dean of York University's Faculty of Education, can discuss the Harris government's record on education policy, including the restructuring of school boards and the current teacher shortages. Bell can be reached at: (416) 736-2100, ext. 66301.

Harry Smaller, a professor in York University's Faculty of Education, is knowledgable about the Government's school reform initiatives, including streaming, teacher activism and unions. He can be reached at: (416) 736-2100, ext. 88807 or at home: (416) 536-0414.

Jerri Popp, practicum coordinator at York University's Faculty of Education, can offer analysis on the aftermath of the Harris government's handling of last year's teacher strike; the reaction to the new curriculum to be implemented this fall; and the government's new school uniform proposal. She can be reached at: (416) 736-2100, ext. 88782 or ext. 66330.

LABOUR RELATIONS / TRADE UNION EXPERTS

Carla Lipsig-MummÈ is the director of York University's Centre for Research on Work and Society. An expert on trade unions and the Ontario labour movement, she can discuss how the status of wage earners and their working conditions have changed during the past five years. Lipsig-MummÈ can be reached at: (416) 736-5612.

Greg Albo, professor of political science, can offer his analysis on jobs, labour relations, public policy and the Ontario economy under the Harris government, the role of the Left in Ontario politics, and the NDP's election campaign. Albo can be reached at: (416) 736-5265 ext. 22552 or at home: (416) 516-4875.

Barbara Cameron, political science chair at York University's Atkinson College, is available to discuss relations between Queen's Park and Ottawa as it relates to the Social Union, and the state of labour relations in the province. She can be reached at: (416) 736-2100, ext. 58194 or at home: (416) 657-6187.

MUNICIPAL AFFAIRS AND PROVINCIAL DOWNLOADING EXPERTS

Edmund (Terry) Fowler, professor of political science at York University's Glendon College and an expert on municipal affairs, can discuss the Government's municipal restructuring and downloading of services (ambulatory services and public transit for instance). He can be reached at: (416) 736-2100, ext. 88323, or at home: (416) 651-9772.

Peter Homenuck, a professor at York University's Faculty of Environmental Studies and a former coordinator of York's urban studies program, can discuss the continuing animosities between the province and Toronto City Hall in the aftermath of amalgamation and how this may affect the way Torontonians cast their votes. Homenuck can be reached at: (905) 660-1060, ext. 223, (416) 736-5252, ext. 33033, or at home: (905) 939-8846.

ENVIRONMENT EXPERTS:

Peter Victor, dean of York University's Faculty of Environmental Studies, can discuss the Harris government's track record on the environment, ranging from deregulation and cutbacks to such initiatives as the drive clean air campaign. Victor is a former Assistant Deputy Minister in the Ontario Ministry of the Environment and Energy. He can be reached at his office at: (416) 736-5284.

David Bell, political science professor and director of York University's Centre for Applied Sustainability, is an expert on political linguistics, political culture and environmental politics. He can be reached at: (416) 736-2100, ext.77095 or at home: (905) 889-2873.

ARTS & CULTURE EXPERTS:

Seth Feldman, former dean of the York University's Faculty of Fine Arts, film historian, media critic and broadcaster, teaches film and television studies at York. He can comment on the Harris government's arts and cultural policies, and provincial arts funding cuts. Feldman can be reached at: (416) 736-2100, ext. 33485.

NATIVE AFFAIRS EXPERTS:

Brian Slattery a professor of law at York University's Osgoode Hall Law School, is available to discuss the election as it relates to Native Peoples and treaty rights. Slattery can be reached at: (416) 736-5631.

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For more infomation or additional experts, please contact:

Sine MacKinnon
Senior Advisor for Media Relations
York University
(416) 736-2100 ext. 22087

Ken Turriff
Media Relations Officer
York University
(416) 736-2100, ext. 22086
YU/036/99

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1999 Ontario Election Campaign Background

Liberal Pre-election Television Ads
Robert MacDermid
Fred Fletcher

TORONTO, April 9, 1999 -- The Liberal Party of Ontario began its pre-election advertising campaign on April 5th with a controversial ad, and a press conference to announce it. The ad contrasts Mike Harris's promises not to cut health care spending and not to close hospitals with claims that almost one in five hospitals have been closed, $870 million cut from health care and $775 million wasted in firing and rehiring nurses. The theme of the ad -- "Can you really believe anything Mike Harris says?" -- is a response to the Harris Government's loud claims to be the only party leader to keep his promises. The ad attempts to link health care, where the government appears to be vulnerable with voters, to the Harris image as a "straight shooter." Introduced with such fanfare, the ad marks the end of the election run-up with the parties trying out various appeals, and the beginning of the pre-election campaign. The Conservatives attacked Liberal leader Dalton McGuinty last fall and there has been a barrage of government ads defending the policies of the Harris government. The Liberal response can be expected to trigger responses from the other parties. The Harris Conservatives have already purchased time for an ad extolling the Premier for "making the difficult decisions." Ironically, that was a theme that featured prominently in the Bob Rae centered ads of the NDP in 1995. Thus, the media campaign begins.

Some news commentary has referred to the Liberal ad as an American style attack ad, but Americans don't have a monopoly on this kind of campaign message. The Harris Tories attacked the Liberals and NDP in similar style in 1995, and the NDP ads of 1990 featuring phoney newscasts were as aggressive as those that the Liberals aired yesterday. The Tory "weathervane" ad of 1995 cast Lyn McLeod as an opportunist, blown in whichever policy direction the wind was strongest. The weathervane theme or image is a staple of American political advertising. Given the astuteness of their 1995 campaign and their willingness to reply and to initiate this kind of exchange, one has to suppose that the Tories are prepared for these attacks and will eventually reply with their own negative ads.

Why are the Liberals running ads now? Pre-election campaign advertising is not new in Ontario, but it is unusual. The Harris-led Progressive Conservatives have already run ads attacking the Liberal leader Dalton McGuinty and the Government has paid for a television ad blitz that gives a much more optimistic "report" on changes to the health care system. It is probably intelligent strategy for the Liberals to respond to both these campaigns before the real election begins.

The Harris Government has put in place a number of changes to the Province's electoral and election finance laws. One of those changes will reduce the length of the election campaign to 28 days from what could have been, prior to 1999, up to a 60 day campaign, though in practice averaged out over the last six elections to be about 40 days. The shortened campaign places more emphasis on the pre-campaign period and will probably result in a much more active period of advertising than has been the practice in the past. In particular, the shortened campaign limits the possibilities of rebutting the ads of other parties. While ads can be made in as little as a day, it may be more difficult to purchase sufficient high-quality advertising spots to have a rebuttal widely aired and repeatedly viewed. The risk of a strong attack ad going unrebutted will undoubtedly push the parties into more and more pre-election advertising. All ads rely upon repetition for effect, but in a shortened campaign, the ability to make, change and repeat ads is limited. In the 1995 election, most ads aired for about a week before they were replaced by new ads.

The shortened campaign makes the strategy and swiftness of the media buy more important. Since only the Government and the Tory campaign team knows when the campaign will start, they will have an edge in putting together the list of spots and stations they would like to buy. The Tory's media buyer should be able to get their order in first and buy up most of the choice advertising spots available. This will be an important advantage for the Harris Government.

No doubt the Liberals are also worried about the enormous lead the Tories have in raising funds. Between the beginning of 1995 and the end of 1997 (the last report available from the Election Finances Commission) the Tories have raised $27.7 million dollars to the Liberals $10.2 million and the NDP's $8.8 million. The Tory advantage will probably translate into a massive television advertising campaign. The Harris campaign of 1995 invested heavily in advertising, much more than the other two parties, spending 68 per cent of its campaign budget on advertising almost all of which went for television advertising. The Progressive Conservative campaign of 1995 was so well financed and run that it produced a very decisive edge in campaign advertising air time, on which there are no restrictions but those of overall campaign expenditures. Since 1995, campaign expenditure limits have been increased and some expensive items such as public opinion polling are no longer defined as a campaign expense. The shortening of the campaign coupled with the redefinition expenses will encourage parties to shift the campaign forward into the pre-election period where expenses are not limited.

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This is the first of what will be a series of background releases that will follow the events of the campaign.

Robert MacDermid teaches Political Science at York University and is the author of "TV Advertising Campaigns in the 1995 Ontario Election," in Revolution at Queen's Park: Essays on Governing Ontario. Sid Noel, Editor. (Toronto: James Lorimer, 1997).

Fred Fletcher teaches political science at York University and is among the co-authors of Government and Politics in Ontario. He has written extensively on election campaigns.

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For further information contact:

Professor Robert MacDermid
Political Science
York University
(416) 736-5265
or at: (705) 357-2459
e-mail: rmacd@yorku.ca

Professor Fred Fletcher
Political Science
York University
(416) 736-2100, ext. 88819
e-mail: ffletch@yorku.ca