Which way will the elephant sway... Gore or Bush?
York University experts weigh in on US Election

TORONTO, October 25, 2000 -- As the late Canadian prime minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau once quipped, living next to the United States is like sleeping with an elephant -- one is affected by every twitch and grunt. So it is that many Canadians will be taking time out from their own elections and looking south to the US presidential election on Nov. 7, which political pundits on both sides of the border say is still too close to call.

To discuss what effects a Gore or a Bush win will have in both the US and Canada, York University offers up the following faculty members who can provide informed and timely analysis of such questions as:

• Why is the Gore campaign in trouble?
• What will a Bush win mean for Social Security, the composition of the Supreme Court, and economic and foreign policy?
• How will Canada's relationship with the US change with a Republican victory?
• Why has US President Bill Clinton been absent from the Gore Campaign?
• How will the Electoral College determine the outcome?
• How has US Green Party Presidential candidate Ralph Nader been a major factor in the race to the White House?
• What are the states to watch?

Stephen L. Newman, chair of York's political science department, specializes in American domestic policy and US party politics. He says if the polls are right, Texas Governor George W. Bush may well become the next President of the United States. "It will not be because he won this year's election but because Al Gore lost it," says Newman. "It is almost unthinkable that the candidate of an incumbent party credited with the strongest and longest peace-time economic recovery in the nation's history should be doing so poorly. On the other hand, Mr. Bush has done little to demonstrate a firm grasp of the issues." Newman adds that part of Gore's trouble lies in the unexpected popularity of the Green Party candidate, Ralph Nader, who is siphoning votes away from Gore in several nominally 'safe' Democratic states. He says Nader cannot win, but if he ends up depriving Gore of victory in several of those states, he may well hand the election to Bush. Newman, who is a US citizen, can be reached at (416) 736-2100, ext. 88836 or at home: (416) 588-0488.

James Laxer, a political science professor at York University's Atkinson Faculty of Liberal and Professional Studies, and author of Stalking the Elephant: My Discovery of America (Viking, 2000), says the outcome of the US presidential race definitely matters to Canadians. "Managing Canada's most important external relationship won't involve a basic rethink for Jean Chretien's Liberals if Mr. Gore is victorious. But if Texas Governor George W. Bush wins, the Liberals will have to cope with a regime that inhabits a very different philosophical terrain from their own. And Stockwell Day and his party are bound to be buoyed by the thought that the United States has taken just the kind of turn they would like to see Canada take." Laxer adds that if Bush wins the election and succeeds in steering his tax cut through Congress, the tax gap between Canada and the United States -- recently narrowed by measures announced in Finance Minister Paul Martin's pre-election mini-budget -- would be further widened. Pressures from business for a matching round of additional tax cuts, accompanied by warnings of a more serious brain drain from Canada to the United States, would be sure to follow, says Laxer. He can be reached at (416) 736-2100, ext. 66462, or at home: (416) 544-9941.

Daniel Marien, a political science professor specializing in American politics, says that President Bill Clinton could easily have won another term. He says the Gore campaign has made a serious mistake by not having a Clinton presence, especially in the US swing states. "The fact that Gore is campaigning in states he should have had sewn up -- Oregon, Washington, Tennessee, West Virginia -- means he's in real trouble." Marien says that this is a decisive election for the future of Social Security, which Bush is seeking to partially privatize. He adds that social security is no longer the "third rail" of American politics that it used to be. Marien can also discuss race relations in the US, domestic policy, labour relations, regionalism, and political economy. He is able to do interviews in French. Marien can be reached at (416) 736-5265, (416) 736-2100, ext. 88826 or at home (416) 656-8993.

Mark Stein, a US history professor, says he is concerned about the repercussions for American domestic policy if the Republicans win control of both the Presidency and Congress. "The Democrats are smart to point to Dick Cheney's extremely conservative voting record in Congress, because voting records, after all, are a better indicator of future action than campaign promises will ever be," says Stein. "If the electorate decides that George W. Bush will want to give the dominant conservative wing of his party its due -- which means enacting major parts of its conservative social, economic, and moral agenda -- the Republicans will not likely capture both the White House and the Congress. Significant numbers of voters may like the symbolism of a strong Republican president but they do not favour the policies that such a president might enact if given control of the Congress." Stein can also discuss the Hilary Clinton / Rick Lazio New York Senate Race, as well as sexual orientation and anti-discrimination measures being contemplated in states such as Maine. Stein, who is a US citizen, can be reached at (416) 736-2100, ext. 30423, at home (416) 537-9239, or by e-mail: mrstein@yorku.ca.

Reg Whitaker, one of York's senior experts on Canadian politics says: Chretien beware! He says the fact that Vice President Al Gore has been unable to translate good economic times into voter support may be indicative of things to come for the Liberals in Canada. He notes that Bush has not self-destructed, as many pundits had earlier predicted. He says both parties are moving to the centre in an effort to win votes: Gore to the right on economic issues, such as what to do with the US budget surplus; Bush to the left on social policies such as race and crime. Whitaker can be reached at (416) 736-2100, ext. 88833, at home: (416) 484-7366, or by e-mail: regwhit@yorku.ca.

Molly Ladd Taylor is a history professor and an expert on US elections and political culture including the politics of gender and race. A US citizen, she says she has already cast her ballot for Gore in her home state of Minnesota, but concedes Ralph Nader may be the spoiler to a Gore Presidency. Taylor says she is concerned about what a Bush win would mean for the US Supreme Court and federal courts, which until now have been balanced. She can be reached at (416) 736-2100, ext. 30419.

Bernie Wolf is a professor of economics at York's Schulich School of Business. A dual citizen of Canada and the United States, Wolf says the fact that the Clinton Administration presided over one of the longest periods of economic prosperity in the post-war period should have ensured a Gore victory. He adds that Bush's campaign for a change in economic policy simply does not make sense. Wolf can also discuss US interest rates, debt, taxes, trade, NAFTA, and other issues related to monetary or trade policy. He can be reached at (416) 736-5068, ext. 77933 or at home (416) 223-2794.

Joseph Green, Professor Emeritus and a former dean of York's Faculty of Fine Arts, is a US citizen who has been paying close attention to all aspects of the US elections. A Gore supporter, he admits the race is too tight for comfort. He says Gore's performance in the debates was better than expected, but not as good as he had hoped. Green can be reached by cell phone: (416) 560-6684.

Ed Dosman is a political science professor at York University's Centre for International and Security Studies. He specializes in American foreign policy, Canada-US relations, American relations with Latin America, and the NAFTA agreement. Dosman can be reached at (416) 736-5156 or at home (416) 534-4680.

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For more information, or additional experts, please contact:

Ken Turriff
Media Relations Officer
York University
(416) 736-2100, ext. 22086
kturriff@yorku.ca
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