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Still No Consensus on WTO Agenda
That opinion is increasingly opposed to a more open international framework for trade in goods and services if it comes at the expense of national sovereignty, employment standards, the environment and human rights. Extreme views on both sides polarize the debate, with virulent isolationists conjuring up a borderless world where transnational corporations run wild, and rabid free-traders claiming all problems can be resolved in the natural course of an unfettered market.
Scholars at York University arguing on both sides of the debate bring some rationality and perspective to the discussion of where international trade negotiations can, and should, move in a technology-driven global economy that is constantly shifting.
Harry Arthurs, professor of law and political science at York's Osgoode Hall Law School, has published extensively on issues of globalization and labour law. He says public protests demanding that the WTO be more responsive to public concerns signal a changing mood about globalization. "People want the benefits of globalization delivered and the harms reduced," says Arthurs. He says the participation of non-governmental organizations in Canada's delegation at the Seattle talks is an inevitable step for governments to defuse public protest. He says protection of Canadian cultural industries should be high on Canada's agenda for the coming round, and the capacity of governments to regulate markets and the environment. Arthurs can be reached at (416) 736-5407.
David Barrows is Associate Director of the Master of Public Administration program at York's Schulich School of Business, and former Director of Trade Policy for the Ontario government from the mid-to-late 1980s. He says the next round of the WTO talks offers a real opportunity to continue to open up the world trade system. "It will be an opportunity to deal with some unfinished issues in the areas of agriculture and intellectual property rights, particularly with the recent introduction of China," says Barrows. He says it will also allow countries to begin thinking about a multilateral agreement on investment in a more structured and substantial way. "But the WTO will have to address in some way, and as part of its process, the outstanding issues around the impact of trade liberalization on labour, the environment, culture and national sovereignty," he adds. Barrows can be reached at (416) 736-2100, ext. 70477.
Daniel Drache, a political scientist, Director of York's Robarts Centre for Canadian Studies, and author of States Against Markets: The Limits of Globalization (Routledge, 1996), is working on a study on protectionism and the conflicting agendas of protectionist trade practices. He notes that the WTO has a problem of political legitimacy in not finding consensus, particularly in Europe on agricultural trade issues, so it cannot easily move on to discussions about investment. "The whole notion of just proceeding with an investment rights agenda when one looks at the new political and economic realities of the next millennium is very risky," says Drache. He says the entry of non-market actors into the debate, from labour and environmental groups, is an important step in broadening the WTO agenda. "This is the beginning of a process that will be difficult for governments to control," says Drache. "It's a turning point, away from the neo-liberal agenda of NAFTA, APEC and the European Union. We are beginning to see that these kinds of mega-deals are more problematic," says Drache, adding that the WTO needs legitimacy if it expects the millennial round to come to a successful conclusion. "Without legitimacy, this round will experience serious difficulties," says Drache. He can be reached at (416) 736-5415 or (416) 921-3332.
Sam Lanfranco is an associate professor of Economics at York's Atkinson College, a consultant to the World Bank and the United Nations Development Program, and a board member on Internet companies based in Boston and New York. He specializes in research on the impact of information and communication technology on knowledge, structure and process within organizations, communities and markets. "One of the historic barriers to trade was physical distance," says Lanfranco. "The information and communications technologies have reduced that and enabled companies to achieve faster economies of scale and scope. Where a lot of sectors were previously protected by time and distance, these boundaries are no longer effective and competition is opening up." Lanfranco says this is a revolutionary shift to an age where it is not the commodities themselves, like oil, steel and timber, but rather the information management around those commodities that will increase in value. It's important, he says, for all stakeholders including labour and environmental groups to be represented at the trade talks, where the priority items on the agenda will be the ownership of intellectual property, rules on access to telecommunications and information and communications markets, as well as those social issues that were off the table in the previous WTO rounds. Lanfranco can be reached at (416) 816-2852, or Sam@Lanfranco.net.
James Laxer is a political scientist at York's Atkinson College and a leading expert on political economy in Ontario and Canada. He says there will be a great deal of pressure on Canada in the new trade round to grant foreign access in sectors the government has traditionally supported, particularly in culture and telecommunications. "A tremendous shift is occurring with the new technologies and recently with the rise in E-commerce," says Laxer. "This offers tremendous possibilities, but also the possibility of huge, destructive effects by eliminating the jobs of hundreds of thousands of people." Laxer says the impact on traditional forms of retailing can be seen already in the demise of Eaton's, and the ability of governments to regulate and tax E-commerce across borders are major issues for the coming trade negotiations. "Canada is still an old-style economy," says Laxer. "It is our merchandise trade surplus that keeps us afloat, while services are in deficit, putting us in deficit in the current account. The new technological business environment will only exacerbate that problem for us." Laxer can be reached at (416) 544-9941.
Carla Lipsig-MummÈ is a social scientist and director of the York University Centre for Research on Work and Society. An expert on labour unions and movements in Canada and internationally, her research focuses on training and education, garment industry workers, labour rights and globalization, and internationally coordinated labour action. She notes that Canadians have long been concerned about so-called liberalization of trade contributing to the dissolution of key cultural institutions which contribute to the shaping and maintaining of national identity. "Education is surely one of the most important of these," she says. "Early indication of the Canadian government's stance on opening education to foreign providers and private, for-profit educational institutions is more than troubling. It represents subservience to a commercial and political project which serves the most aggressive of the larger economies at the expense of small societies like Canada." Lipsig-MummÈ says the WTO has expanded its definition of trade to include the most important institutions determining the society we live in. "If trade is coming to be equivalent to society and community, and if the WTO is usurping the role of the federal government, then non-government organizations need to be present, active and vocal at the trade talks." She can be reached at (416) 736-5612.
Allan Middleton is a professor of marketing at York's Schulich School of Business, and a former marketing professional with expertise in China. He says the beginning of talks on the reduction of tariffs on services will be a major challenge for the WTO -- whether the participants can resolve the outstanding issues like manufacturing remaining in some countries and move on to talk in more detail about agriculture and service issues, such as regulation on banking and other financial sectors. "The hot point is the issue of what constitutes government assistance in the service sector, and I believe most countries are going to duck this, despite American pressure," says Middleton. "More difficult to duck will be continued pressure from the Americans to look at entertainment services as a commercial, rather than a cultural, industry," says Middleton. He can be reached at (416) 736-2100, ext. 33180.
Shaohua Pan is a research associate at the Joint Centre for Asia Pacific Studies at York University and the University of Toronto. He specializes in international development and development economics, with a focus on Asia-Pacific economic cooperation. Pan says it is natural that public institutions and NGOs want into the trade talks, but he points out that the WTO's only mission is trade, evolved from a still more simple purpose organization, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. "This kind of institutional constraint is embedded in all major international technical organizations designed to achieve certain functional purposes," says Pan. He says a more constructive view would be to let the WTO continue to improve trade rule making and enforcement while encouraging it to consider related issues like the environment and labour standards on a case by case basis. "Trade ministers are politicians and they have to handle these issues, but it will be hard to develop a firm agenda for the trade talks that is supported by international lobby groups," says Pan. He notes that a trading power the size of China must be in the WTO if the trade body is to have legitimacy as a global organization, and says China will certainly benefit in the long run. "But overcoming some of the short-term difficulties may well prove to be a daunting task for the Chinese government," says Pan. He can be reached at (416) 736-2100, ext. 44067, or (416) 243-1098.
Yigang Pan, Scotia Bank Professor of International Business at York's Schulich School of Business, specializes in the performance of foreign firms in China. He says the opportunities for Canadian firms in China are now more extensive and promising in the areas of telecommunications and high technology, banking, finance and agriculture, now that China has reached an accord with the US for accession to the WTO. "As long as Canadian firms are aggressive and know how to exploit these opportunities, they will do well," says Pan, although he notes that European firms tend to know how to manoeuvre better in the Chinese bureaucracy. He says the Chinese leadership was determined that China accede to the WTO before the new millennium and that will happen early next year, now that agreement has been reached with the United States. "I believe Chinese President Jiang Zemin and Premier Zhu Rongji wanted to make their mark before the end of the century," says Pan. He says the Chinese leadership also recognized that the longer they waited to join the trade body, the more the West would demand in access to their market. "The Chinese have won some time to adjust their market to the elimination of tariffs, particularly in the auto industry," says Pan. Pan can be reached at (416) 736-2100, ext. 77936.
Bernie Wolf, professor of economics and international business at York's Schulich School of Business, specializes in international trade with a focus on the auto and telecommunications industries. "The WTO is extremely important for smaller, open economies like Canada because it provides a rules-based framework for trade liberalization in an international arena that otherwise would be dominated by the countries with the most economic clout," says Wolf. He notes that the Canadian government is adamant about keeping cultural issues completely out of the talks. "In addition, I think the government would prefer to see social and education policy issues discussed at the International Labour Organization rather than the WTO, a view with which I agree as these issues may hinder otherwise fruitful negotiations." Wolf says issues concerning labour and environmental standards are contentious, and in his view, developing countries cannot be expected to meet developed country standards overnight. With respect to telecommunications, Wolf expects there will be pressure from the US on Canada to open the sector in the coming round of trade talks, urging the raising or even elimination of foreign ownership limits. He notes that the issues before the WTO in this round are more difficult than in some earlier GATT rounds where it was simpler to negotiate and monitor the reduction of tariffs. "The issue of competition policy is likely to be raised in the millennium round, which is very difficult to harmonize globally and even more difficult to enforce, particularly in light of the increasing number of transborder mergers," says Wolf, pointing to the recent bid by Britain's cellular phone company, Vodaphone AirTouch to take over the German conglomerate Mannesmann. "It is also a very sensitive area since it strongly impacts on national sovereignty," he adds. Wolf says economists and international business experts have not done an adequate job in educating the public about the tremendous gains that have accrued from the trade liberalization of the last 50 years. He can be reached at (416) 736-2100, ext. 77933.
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