"Making Sense of Forced Displacement in The Horn of Africa": Horn of Africa Annual Conference Series 2

Belonging in exile, being diaspora in one’s former state: Findings from Eritrean migrants in Addis Ababa

Tanja R. Müller

In discussions of migrant belonging, empirical studies discuss how geographical place has a key impact when producing and contesting forms of belonging. Cities can be welcoming or hostile environments, and re-enforce or contest migration policies. At the same time, migrants practice belonging in relation to their place of origin, deepening or contesting their relationship to the nation state in ambiguous ways.I contribute to these debates through a focus on migrants who stay in their region of origin, and have migrated (back) to a country which their now independent state was formally part of. Based on empirical fieldwork among Eritrean migrants in Addis Ababa, I interrogate how belonging to the place of residence and the home nation state is being created and transformed through lived citizenship in the city as well as political upheavals in the wider region. I argue that belonging is particularly complex for migrants who stay in the vicinity of their homeland. At the same time, political developments in that near vicinity have concrete repercussions for everyday lives. They enforce the importance of localised forms of belonging or transnational networks. But they also enforce or create new forms of belonging to the real or imagined home nation-state.

Sudanese Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) Fleeing to Ethiopia Amid Conflict

Tadie Degie Yigzaw

This article examines the problem of internally displaced persons (IDPs) from Sudan who have fled to Ethiopia since the conflict started in 2023. This timely article sheds light on the horrifying experiences of these marginalized communities, who were forced to flee their homes due to an increase in violence and instability.The influx of internally displaced people (IDPs) into Ethiopia from Sudan highlights the pressing need for international cooperation and involvement to address the humanitarian catastrophe in that nation. The goal of the study is to understand the reasons for this relocation, the experiences of the internally displaced people,and the challenges they face in their quest for safety in Ethiopia. Using a qualitative research methodology, this study collects data from internally displacedSudanese citizens who have moved to Ethiopia through in-depth interviews. The theoretical framework of this study is based on the concept of forced migration and emphasizes the role that conflict, violence, and persecution have in causing displacement. The study's conclusions show that the reason Sudanese internally displaced people (IDPs) are leaving their country of origin is the ongoing conflict, which has caused extensive violence, violations of human rights, and displacement. The IDPs have several difficulties when trying to find safety in Ethiopia, such as discrimination, poor housing, and restricted access to essential services. Overall, this study emphasizes the critical need for more safety and assistance for Sudanese internally displaced people (IDPs) who have fled to Ethiopia, as well as the necessity of finding a comprehensive and long-term solution to the country's war. Keywords: Ethiopia, Fleeing, Displacement, Conflict, Sudanese, Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs).

How border demarcation and border shifting complicate the scholarly discussion on displacement and climate change?

Rania Madani

As a political matter, climate change is addressed differently in different contexts. Studies show how, as a global phenomenon, climate change hits differently.While the consequences of its impacts are usually different from one place to another, political instability, loss of livelihoods, and displacement are common features. This paper focuses on displacement and refugeeism as main problems associated with climate change. It mainly interrogates climate refugees as a category that determines people’s opportunities/capacities to survive/adapt to climate change. While the racialized discourse underpinning climate refugee category is mainly focused on Europe, this paper addresses the racial discourse, as one aspect of a much more complicated situation, within Africa. Based on ethnographic data from Jodah border area between Sudan and South Sudan, located within Sudan, this paper problematizes the notion of climate refugees. It highlights the paradox presented by putting together two unstable categories: the refugees, and the uneven climate change impacts. I argue that the term climate refugee obscures the impacts of preexisting inequalities and vulnerabilities, including the refugization process itself, and their impacts on the climate-affected communities. It emphasizes the inseparability of the preexisting vulnerabilities from climate change impacts, and the new forms of vulnerability the category of climate refugee may create.

The Cycle of Conflict-Induced Displacement in Oromia, Ethiopia in Post-2018

Galata Gamachu

This research delves into the cyclic phenomenon of forced displacement in Oromia, Ethiopia, fueled by a complex interplay of government actions, security forces,and Amhara vigilantes known as 'Fanno.' The Government of Ethiopia, in collaboration with its military and security apparatus, initiated attacks leading to the mass displacement of hundreds of thousands of Oromo individuals. Strikingly, these displaced individuals not only faced the denial of return to their homes but also encountered a dire lack of adequate humanitarian assistance. Frustration among the Oromo population, exacerbated by skyrocketing unemployment rates, found an outlet for their discontent by joining the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA). This armed resistance movement opposes the Ethiopian government and its collaborating forces. Consequently, this protracted security crisis perpetuates the cycle of forced displacement, resulting in a continuous cycle of internally displaced persons (IDPs) and an extended humanitarian crisis. This research relies on a qualitative approach, primarily drawing on data collected from secondary sources such as academic publications, reports, and news articles. Additionally, insights from interviews provide a nuanced understanding of the lived experiences of those affected by the cycle of displacement in Oromia. This research shed light on the intricate dynamics contributing to the ongoing crisis, with implications for both policy and humanitarian interventions aimed at breaking this destructive cycle. Keywords: Conflict, Displacement, Oromia, Ethiopia, post-2018

Forced displacement and climate change in the Horn of Africa: causes and effects, what has been done and what can be done to better handle it

Cristiano d'Orsi

The effects of climate change are already apparent in many regions of the Horn of Africa and are projected to continue. Although much climate-induced forced displacement occurs from rural-urban areas, cities and towns are also experiencing increasing numbers and severity of natural hazards. In addition to less rainfall in the Horn of Africa, a warming climate means more water is evaporating from the soil and transpiring from plants into the atmosphere. Many people affected across the region are pastoralists or farmers who have watched crops wither and water sources run dry. In this framework, our work tries to shed light on the causes and the effects that such forced displacement entails. More in detail, the Ethiopia’s Somali region has borne the brunt of the crisis with, until the end of 2023, more than 700,000 people affected. Flooding has contaminated water sources and ruined health facilities, increasing risk of disease. It also has damaged thousands of acres of cropland and killed tens of thousands of livestock in a key agricultural area of the country. Although helicopters are enabling aid workers to provide emergency humanitarian relief and other basic supplies to some, the vast majority of impacted communities are in hard-to-reach areas and have no support. In the same macro-region, hundreds of thousands of Somali families have been forced to flee their homes, and an even higher number have been impacted by the heavy rains and flooding in Somalia alone. The crisis marks the worst flooding in Somalia’s history. In Kenya, around 450,000 people (end of 2023) have been displaced and disease outbreaks are spreading rapidly in the country, as families grapple with the floods. The rains come at the end of a drought that affected more than four million Kenyans and pushed many into poverties. High waters have seriously damaged homes, businesses, and health centres, as well as key infrastructure such as water facilities. Against this backdrop, climate and human mobility increasingly recognized in legal and policy frameworks at all levels in Africa. In July 2022, countries making up the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the East African Community (EAC) signed the Kampala Ministerial Declaration on Migration, Climate Change and Environment. In 2020, IGAD states adopted the Protocol on Free Movement of Persons in the IGAD region, the first to address people fleeing disasters and climate change specifically. In this scenario, we consider regional protocols enabling free movement can significantly increase protection and resources for  those migrating due to the effects of climate change. Such measures provide jobs and trade and empower people to access alternative income opportunities and skills. Free movement enables cross-border circular and seasonal migration, allowing people to return home with social and financial remittances, including knowledge, technology and skills. This said, regional cooperation is crucial because climate displacement has cross-border implications. Responses such as the Kampala Declaration raise awareness of the threats, establish joint priorities and action plans, and galvanize international support for implementation. In the end, we also make several recommendations on the way in which forced displacement in the Horn could be better managed. Among those recommendations, we suggest, for example, that local governments and municipal actors engage in planning and decision-making around addressing climate-induced forced migration. Additionally, we also think that make planned urban expansion a priority is also crucial as to improve climate awareness in programming also plays an important role in the containment the effect that climate change has on the displacement of people. Furthermore, we believe that also use data and evidence-based forecasting and existing knowledge of climate projections to inform programming at local and national levels could assist in better managing.

Unlocking Refugee Endeavors: Entrepreneurship as a Catalyst for Facilitating Refugee Integration in Transition Countries

Toli Amare

The practice of migration and seeking refuge has existed since the dawn of history. In the contemporary world, migration continues in various forms due to war,political instability, climate change, and other natural and man-made catastrophes. Refugees flee their homes and spend time in transition countries. Attention towards supporting these people has primarily been limited to resettlement, aiding them in leading subsistence lives in camps, and facilitating conditions for them to transfer to a third country where they can enjoy better protection. However, renewed efforts to make migration and refugee situations more beneficial to refugees themselves and the transition countries require managing the phenomenon differently—integrating refugees into the social fabric of host nations. In this policy paper, we pose a fundamental question: does entrepreneurship help facilitate refugee integration? We aim to discern the facilitating role of entrepreneurship in empowering refugees and helping them integrate into the socioeconomic conditions of host nations. Due to the distinctive nature of the respondents and their complex backgrounds, we plan to approach the problem with a qualitative case study by conducting in-depth interviews with refugee entrepreneurs in East African countries: Ethiopia and Kenya. We intend to follow thematic analysis to extract key dimensions that emerge from the data.Accordingly, our preliminary interview findings indicate that engaging in entrepreneurship has immensely contributed to refugees’ sense of continuity and incorporation, socialization and customization, and independence and skill utilization. The paper aims to make significant contributions to areas of refugee support programs, refugee empowerment, and socioeconomic integration of refugees. Our work also aims to contribute to theory development in the field of migrant and refugee entrepreneurship.

Complex dynamics of internal displacement in Somalia driven by climate and conflict

Woi Sok Oh

Somalia has an increasing number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) within the country's border mainly driven by climate and conflict stresses. Recent researchers have worked on how climate and conflict drive internal displacement. However, we lack a comparative understanding of how climate and conflict similarly or differently shape emergent IDP patterns. It has been difficult to capture such patterns because of the complex nature of the problem. To address the gap, we use complex systems approaches in the case of Somalia such as network analysis and event coincidence analysis. We ask the following research questions: (1) How do climate and conflict have spatially heterogeneous interrelationship with internal displacement in Somalia?; (2) How do climate and conflict shape emergent patterns of the IDP network similarly or differently? In solving the problem, we used Protection and Return Monitoring Network Data from UNHCR at the district administrative level, incorporating precipitation, temperature, and conflict data. We first detect distinct spatial hotspots where armed conflict occurrence,precipitation deficit, and abnormally high temperature coincide with internal displacement events respectively. Conflict and IDP coincide greatly in the southern part of Somalia as al Shabaab is based in this region. Precipitation deficit interrelates strongly with internal displacement across the country, particularly in the central regions. We observe a weak coincidence between high maximum temperature and IDP events across the country. We then investigate degree distributions,triadic structures, and community patterns of the IDP network. Indegree and outdegree distributions exhibited that social connections were critical to incoming IDP flows but not to outgoing IDP flows. Natural disasters and conflicts produced similar triadic structures of IDP networks, suggesting possible interactions between natural disasters and conflicts in driving IDP flows. From the community detection, Natural disasters were likely to move IDPs within the regional boundaries, but conflicts relocated IDPs to relatively remote areas out of the boundaries. The communities were more modular in the disaster-induced IDP network than in the conflict-induced IDP network. These findings are useful for understanding IDP network patterns as a starting point for developing a nexus between climate,conflict, and migration. Also, findings from this paper will help policymakers identify where the hotspots of climate-induce migration and conflict-induced migration to prepare the internal displacement and provide aid support effectively.

The Impacts of Armed Conflict and Climate Change on Displacement in Tigray, Ethiopia

Snit Abrha

This research centers on assessing the combined impacts of conflict and climate change on forced displacement in Tigray, Ethiopia. Since November 2020, Tigrayhas been engulfed in a devastating armed conflict, exacerbating existing food insecurity and leading to widespread displacement (Mehta & Weldemichel, 2022).This conflict threatens the gains made in environmental restoration since the end of the Ethiopian Civil War in 1991, putting agricultural sustainability at risk(Schulte, 2022). Complicating matters further, Tigray is identified as a climate-security hotspot (Pacillo et al., 2021). Existing literature underscores how armedconflicts disrupt communities, leading to displacement, loss of livelihoods, and increased vulnerability (Dago, 2021). This study aims to address the following inquiries: What were the prevailing climate-resilient practices in Tigray before the conflict? How has the combined impact of conflict and climate change contributed to forced displacement and affected the resilience of communities amidst these challenges? By examining the nexus of conflict, climate change, and forced displacement, the goal is to evaluate the capacity of communities to rebuild and adapt to the environmental consequences of conflict. Importantly, there is a noticeable dearth of literature on how the conflict has influenced climate change mitigation efforts in the region. This research strives to bridge this gap, offering insights to shape immediate humanitarian responses and guide long-term post-conflict reconstruction efforts with a focus on resilience. The findings of this research will not only shed light on the impacts of conflict and climate change on forced displacement in Tigray but will also contribute to broader discussions on forced migration and resilience in conflict-affected regions.