MINORITIES CHANGE THE FACE OF TORONTO

Wed, March 23, 2005

STATSCAN SEES VERY DIFFERENT CITY BY 2017

By SARAH GREEN, TORONTO SUN

MORE THAN half of Toronto's faces will be those of visible minorities by 2017, when Canada celebrates its 150th anniversary. According to Statistics Canada projections released yesterday, there will be 2.8 million to nearly 3.9 million visible minorities living in the country's largest city 12 years from now. Overall, Toronto will have 6.3 million to 7.1 million residents by then.

South Asians -- the fastest growing minority group in the 2001 census -- will see their numbers rise to more than 1 million in Toronto, followed by the Chinese at 735,000.

In the 2001 census -- the most recent numbers available -- 36.8% of Toronto's residents were visible minorities, up from 25.8% in 1991.

All told, one in five people living in Canada -- about 6.3 million to 8.5 million or 20% -- will be a member of a visible minority in 2017.

IMMIGRATION IS KEY

This compares to 13% who identified themselves as visible minorities in 2001.

Immigration is the "most important" factor to the rapid growth of visible minorities, according to the report.

In 2001, about 70% of the visible minority population was born outside Canada.

"Canada is still regarded as a model of immigration reception," said Prof. Jeffrey Reitz, a University of Toronto sociologist.

"We're really at a high-water mark. We have a lot of immigrants, but people are more favourable to immigration here than anywhere else."

The only "dark cloud" in Canada's immigration picture is the inability of many newcomers to find jobs to match their skills and education, Reitz said.

In the 1960s, immigrants were highly skilled compared to Canadian-born workers, but homegrown education levels and standards have risen since then.

'DEVALUED CURRENCY'

Immigrants are now finding their education is "devalued currency," Reitz said.

"Over time, there's been an erosion and deterioration of the experience of immigrants," he said. "As the population diversifies, we really do need to address the question of adequate employment opportunities."

Canada's South Asian population -- those from India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka -- will catch up to the Chinese in 2017 with each group numbering around 1.8 million.

More than half of Canada's South Asians and 40% of the Chinese will be living in Toronto.

The black population will be the third largest visible minority, reaching 1 million.

And Canada's visible minorities will be a younger population -- the median age will be 35.5 compared with 43.4, the median age of the rest of the population.

QUESTIONS

1) WILL IT BE POSSIBLE TO CONCEIVE OF CANADA AS A “WHITE” SOCIETY IN THE NEXT DECADE?

2) WILL IT BE POSSIBLE TO CONCEIVE OF CANADA AS A “COLOUR-BLIND” SOCIETY IN THE NEXT DECADE?

3) HOW AND WHY ARE “IMMIGRANTS ARE NOW FINDING THEIR EDUCATION IS "DEVALUED CURRENCY?”

LOOK OF THE CITY IN 2017

TORONTO population by visible minority group according to one of several Statistics Canada scenarios, ranked by projected size.

1. SOUTH ASIAN

- 2001: 488,000

- 2017: 1,267,700

2. CHINESE

- 2001: 420,700

- 2017: 898,600

3. BLACK

- 2001: 318,200

- 2017: 538,500

4. FILIPINO

- 2001: 137,400

- 2017: 283,800

5. WEST ASIAN

- 2001: 54,000

- 2017: 178,600

6. LATIN AMERICAN

- 2001: 75,300

- 2017: 151,200

7. ARAB

- 2001: 43,500

- 2017: 131,000

8. KOREAN

- 2001: 41,100

- 2017: 104,600

9. SOUTHEAST ASIAN

- 2001: 55,100

- 2017: 97,000

10. JAPANESE

- 2001: 16,400

- 2017: 24,000

OTHER VISIBLE MINORITIES

- 2001: 102,800

- 2017: 177,800

TOTAL VISIBLE MINORITIES

- 2001: 1,752,600

- 2017: 3,852,900

OTHER NON-VISIBLE

- 2001: 3,044,600

- 2017: 3,294,600

TOTAL POPULATION OF TORONTO:

- 2001: 4,797,200

- 2017: 7,147,500

Source: Statistics Canada