Project Overview
Title: Modelling Pertussis Transmission and Vaccine Scenarios in Newfoundland and Labrador
Funding Agency: Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC)
Goal: To support public health decision-making in Newfoundland and Labrador by predicting pertussis trends and evaluating the impact of routine and booster vaccination strategies using a transmission dynamics model.
Project Summary
This project responds to a request from Newfoundland and Labrador Health Services (NLHS) for modelling support to address a surge in pertussis (whooping cough) cases. Funded by the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC), the project uses a transmission dynamics model to analyze disease trends and assess different vaccination scenarios.
Under the leadership of Dr. Jianhong Wu at York University, the research team will utilize fine-grained, age-stratified data and social contact patterns to simulate pertussis spread and evaluate the effectiveness of various vaccine strategies. The work aims to inform optimal public health responses in Labrador and may guide broader national vaccination approaches.
Key Research Areas
- Disease Transmission Modelling: Using a transmission dynamics model to predict pertussis trends.
- Scenario Analysis: Evaluating the impact of different combinations of routine and booster vaccination strategies.
- Age-Stratified Contact Patterns: Incorporating contact data to better understand inter-age group transmission.
- Data-Driven Policy Support: Providing formal reports and presentations to public health stakeholders.
Key Contributors
Project Lead:
- Jianhong Wu, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Science, York University
Project Duration
Start Date: January 20, 2025
End Date: March 21, 2025
Impact and Future Goals
This short-term project will directly support public health planning in response to a local pertussis outbreak. Its findings will help determine the best vaccination strategies for reducing transmission, especially among infants and young children. The methodology and insights may also serve as a model for other jurisdictions facing similar public health challenges.